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An Excellent Speculation on Higher Interest Rates


If interest rates never rise, this wide-moat stock will be on a trajectory to return a modest 7% a year. But if interest rates increase, it’ll be a wide moat stock on a trajectory to return an excellent 10% a year.

This stock will be an acceptable, but not especially profitable investment, if the Fed never raises interest rates. But once the Fed does start raising rates, it’ll be a good long-term investment. The stock should provide excellent annual returns during the 5-year period where interest rates increase at the fastest pace.

If you’re looking for an excellent medium-term–say 2016 through 2021–speculation on higher interest rates, this is the stock.

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A Rare Business Model

Since 2008 this company has converted 58 cents of every dollar of EBIT into free cash flow. This is like a company with a 35% tax rate converting 90% of reported after-tax earnings into free cash flow. All the while it was paying interest and growing sales at rates above nominal GDP growth.

If you’re looking for a stock to buy and hold forever, this is your stock. This is a perfect buy and hold forever stock.

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I’ll be speaking about my books and research in Philadelphia at The MicroCap Conference on October 24th and 25th. Should be a lot of fun.

The focus of The MicroCap Conference is to highlight the most attractive companies across various sectors. We will be bringing up to 75 companies in addition to expert speakers to present to the audience. October 24th and 25th will be jam-packed with company sessions, presentations, industry panels, good food, and of course plenty of time to network with other investors over drinks.

For tickets and more information, click here–>Philadelphia 2016 – The MicroCap Conference

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It’s one of the cheapest stocks we’ve written about in Singular Diligence. Right now, it trades at a huge discount to comparable companies and historical prices paid in the past for acquisitions of companies.

Cheaper than many peers while also having better growth prospects than those peers, it’s a growth stock that trades at an unusual discount for a company that isn’t seriously troubled.

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This is fun. Deep Value has now been translated into Simplified Chinese.


If you were looking for a good reason to read the English version, this is it.

Buy my bookDeep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street. Tobias Carlisle has hit a home run deep over left field. It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages on how to not lose money in the market. It’s your Autumn smart read. –Tom Keene, Bloomberg’s Editor-At-Large, Bloomberg Surveillance, September 9, 2014.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on Twitter, LinkedIn or Facebook. Check out the best deep value stocks in the largest 1000 names for free on The Acquirer’s Multiple.

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Huge Margins At Capacity

A stock that can trace its roots to Sidney Jacobson’s Sid Tool Company founded in 1941 in Manhattan. To diversify its sales, in 1961 Jacobson started a catalog business offering discounted prices on imported cutting tools. Since it was a catalog instead of a store, the book was able to offer a wide range of products. By 1964, it had over 150 pages. Today, its catalog–known as the “Big Book”–has over 4,000 pages, with customers in all 50 states, through a network of five customer fulfillment centers (four in the United States and one in the United Kingdom) and 106 branch offices (104 in the United States, one is located in the United Kingdom and one in Mexico).
Over the next 5 years, the company can increase sales, and margins, and pay out free cash flow without additional investment in infrastructure. It is cheap today compared to what it will be earning in 2021.

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