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Archive for September, 2014

Speaker presentations from the Value Investing Congress are highly sought after by investors everywhere for their clear and compelling analysis.  Listen to this 15-minute audio clip from activist investor Alex Roepers’ outstanding presentation,”Global Value Investment Opportunities” from the just-completed New York Congress and you’ll see why.

Use the link below to listen to the audio clip:

Roepers’ Audio

To access other audio recordings and presentations from the most recent Congress, subscribe to Value Access >>

Roepers’ 2013 presentation can be found here (.pdf).

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street. Tobias Carlisle has hit a home run deep over left field. It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages on how to not lose money in the market. It’s your Autumn smart read. –Tom Keene, Bloomberg’s Editor-At-Large, Bloomberg Surveillance, September 9, 2014.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on Twitter, LinkedIn or Facebook.

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Investor and blogger Saj Karsan, who runs the excellent Barel Karsan – Value Investing site, reviewed a copy of Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations. Saj often writes on his blog about the same stocks I buy, so I figured he would give the book a fair hearing. In Deep Value, Saj writes:

I really enjoyed Toby Carlisle’s latest, Deep Value. There are a lot of books that offer compelling stories, but to my mind the plural of anecdote is not statistic. On the other hand, books heavy on the stats tend to bore their readers to sleep. For me, Deep Value was the perfect blend of real-life investing stories combined with the stats necessary to make for a convincing argument.

Most chapters focus on a protagonist who is on a quest for better returns. You may recognize some of them, including Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett, but you may not others (or at least I didn’t), including Ron Brierley. In this way, the book reminded me a lot of (the heavily-recommended by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett) Business Adventures, but with a focus on investor activism rather than general business.

But unlike a lot of books I have read, the story-telling does not complete the tale. Carlisle examines the factors that lead to success in activism, thus giving passive investors the opportunity to predict (statistically) which stocks are most likely to attract an activist. At this point, the book reminded me of…

Read the remainder of Saj’s Deep Value.

 

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street. Tobias Carlisle has hit a home run deep over left field. It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages on how to not lose money in the market. It’s your Autumn smart read.                                                               —Tom Keene, Bloomberg’s Editor-At-Large, Bloomberg Surveillance, September 9, 2014.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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This was a fun interview. We talk about the battles for control of Herbalife (HLF), and Apple (AAPL) how to decide which side to take.

 

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street. Tobias Carlisle has hit a home run deep over left field. It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages on how to not lose money in the market. It’s your Autumn smart read.                                                               —Tom Keene, Bloomberg’s Editor-At-Large, Bloomberg Surveillance, September 9, 2014.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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Talking to Jeff Macke about why takeover targets $VLO, $COH, and $CF are cheap on an acquirer’s multiple basis:

Yahoo! Finance Angling for Takeover Targets

 

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Click here to watch Yahoo! Finance’s Jeff Macke and I discuss Angling for Takeover Targets

“Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street,” says Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, “It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages. It’s your Autumn smart read.”

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

[I, and accounts I manage, own CF and VLO.]

 

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Millennial Investor Patrick O’Shaughnessy has a great post on searching for deep value stocks, which discusses the opportunities I canvass in my new book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance).

Deep value investing is a powerful way to beat the market, but deep value stocks are an endangered species in the U.S.

I was recently talking with Tobias Carlisle, author of Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, about what constitutes a deep value stock. To find these stocks, Tobias prefers to use the “takeover” multiple. One version of the takeover multiple is the ratio of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to enterprise value (market value of equity plus book value of debt minus cash).

This is a great multiple for stock selection. Like to price-to-earnings ratio, it helps you find unloved companies, but it also penalizes stocks for having too much debt (more debt = worse ratio, ceteris paribus). If all you did was buy the 10% of stocks with the cheapest EBITDA/EV ratios on an annual basis, you’d have outperformed the market by more than 5% annually over the past five decades.

I asked Tobias what he considers a very cheap multiple EV/EBITDA multiple, and we agreed that somewhere below 5x indicates a cheap stock, while a multiple of less than 3x indicates very deep value. So here is the problem: today, we face what is perhaps the most difficult environment for deep value investing in history.  Just 3.2% of non-financial, U.S. companies with a market cap of at least $200MM trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple below 5x.  That is just off June’s all-time low of 2.9%.

Read Patrick’s excellent Searching for deep value stocks.

You can also pre-order his book Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune (Hardcover), which is out on October 14, 2014. I’m excited to read it.

 

“Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street,” says Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, “It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages. It’s your Autumn smart read.”

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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This is one of the most interesting interviews I’ve done. We discuss behavioral errors, the market level, and finding deep value.

My interview begins at 31:35 (the first part is cut off and the podcast makes it sound like I cut off the President, which obviously didn’t happen):

“Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street,” says Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, “It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages. It’s your Autumn smart read.”

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

Read Full Post »

Bottom-up scrounging to find stocks that have dipped and praying for volatility:

Yahoo! Finance Finding Deep Value In The Markets

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Click here to watch Yahoo! Finance’s Jeff Macke and I discuss Finding Deep Value In The Markets

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

 

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“Here’s your book for the fall if you’re on global Wall Street,” says Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, “It’s an incredibly smart, dense, 213 pages. It’s your Autumn smart read.”

Why Activists Target Undervalued Cash Rich Companies

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Click here to watch Why Activists Target Undervalued Cash Rich Companies

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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Now that I’m back from New York I’m going to post a few of the interviews I did over the last few days. First cab off the rank is my The Street.com interview with Gregg Greenberg:

Buffett’s Berkshire Still Nimble Despite Size Says ‘Deep Value’ Author

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Click here to watch Buffett’s Berkshire Still Nimble Despite Size Says ‘Deep Value’ Author

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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I recorded an interview yesterday afternoon with WFAE 90.7 (“Charlotte’s NPR News Source”) about the strategy behind Carl Icahn’s exit from Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO:NYSE) and Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance). Here is Icahn Exits, Family Dollar Considers Rival Bids:

The future of Family Dollar is uncertain—it’s in the midst of a bidding war as its board of directors decides whether to sell the company to Dollar Tree or Dollar General. But this much is certain: The billionaire investor who helped spur this pending ownership change is now cashing in.

Rewind to June: Family Dollar’s earnings are sluggish, stock is stagnant, and competitors are pulling away. Carl Icahn thunders in; the 78-year-old activist investor buys more than $150 million of the company’s stock and options, demands a change in leadership, and threatens to attempt a hostile takeover.

Fast forward to present: Family Dollar is trading at an all-time high, $80 per share, and fielding offers from its two chief rivals. And Icahn is out.

“This is classic Carl Icahn—[find a] deeply undervalued company with an ugly looking business that he can buy and create an event. And that event was the sale,” says Tobias Carlisle, managing director of Eyquem Investment Management and the author of “Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations.”

Read the rest of Icahn Exits, Family Dollar Considers Rival Bids here.

Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon, or Barnes and Noble.

Click here if you’d like to read more on Deep Value, or connect with me on TwitterLinkedIn or Facebook.

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