Greenbackd

Forward Industries Inc (NASDAQ:FORD) has filed its quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2009.

We started following FORD (see our post archive here) because it was trading at a discount to its net cash and liquidation values, although there was no obvious catalyst. Management appeared to be considering a “strategic transaction” of some kind, which might have included an “acquisition or some other combination.” Trinad Management had an activist position in the stock, but had been selling at the time we opened the position and only one stockholder owned more than 5% of the stock. The stock is up 17.4% since we opened the position to close yesterday at $1.69, giving the company a market capitalization of $13.4M. Following our review of the most recent 10Q, we’ve slightly reduced our estimate of the liquidation value to $19.5M or $2.47 per share.

The value proposition updated

FORD continues to face difficult trading conditions, writing in the most recent 10Q:

Trends and Economic Environment: We believe that the deteriorating economic conditions, rising unemployment, tight credit markets, and heightened uncertainty in financial markets during the past 18 months have adversely impacted discretionary consumer spending, including spending on the types of electronic devices that are accessorized by our products. We expect this challenging business environment to continue in the foreseeable future.

The company had a slightly better quarter than the preceding one, but still burned through nearly $0.3M of cash (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

Summary balance sheet adjustments

We’ve made the following adjustments to the balance sheet estimates (included in the valuation above):

• Cash burn: We’ve got no real idea about FORD’s prospects. Its cash burn over the last quarter was around $0.3M. That was made up of $0.2M of cash used in operations and $0.1M cash used in investment activities. If we assume, as management has, that the company will face a similarly tough operating environment over the next 12 months, we estimate cash burn of around $0.7M.
• Off-balance sheet arrangements: According to FORD’s most recent 10Q, it has no off-balance sheet arrangements.
• Contractual obligations: FORD’s contractual obligations are minimal, totalling $0.9M.

Possible catalysts

FORD’s President and Acting Chairman, Mr. Doug Sabra, said in the letter to FORD shareholders accompanying the notice of annual shareholders’ meeting, that in 2008 “management began to implement operational and strategic initiatives in order to put [FORD]’s business on a stronger, more sustainable footing. …  This past August we retained an outside consultant to assist us in vetting possible partners for a strategic transaction.” It seems that the “strategic transaction” might include a “possible acquisition or other combination that makes sense in the context of [FORD’s] existing business, without jeopardizing the strong financial position that we have worked so hard to build.” FORD’s focus on a “strategic transaction” is a positive, in our view, although our vast preference is for a sale of the company, buyback, special dividend or return of capital over an acquisition.

Any transaction will require the consent of FORD’s board. While it has a free float of around 92%, the company’s so-called “Anti-takeover Provisions” authorize the board to issue up to 4M shares of “blank check” preferred stock. From the 10Q:

The Board of Directors has the authority and discretion, without shareholder approval, to issue preferred stock in one or more series for any consideration it deems appropriate, and to fix the relative rights and preferences thereof including their redemption, dividend and conversion rights.

Conclusion

At its $1.69 close Friday, FORD is trading at a substantial 46% discount to its $2.47 per share liquidation value and $2.07 per share net cash value. While there’s no obvious catalyst in the stock at this stage, management’s consideration of a “strategic transaction” is a positive. The risk to this position is management spending the cash on an acquisition. We think a far better use of the company’s cash is a buyback, special dividend or return of capital. Another concern is Trinad Management exiting its activist position in the stock. Those concerns aside, we’re going to maintain our position because still looks cheap at a discount to net cash.

[Full Disclosure:  We have a holding in FORD. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]