Multpl.com has a handy Graham / Shiller PE10 chart for the S&P500 that updates on daily basis. Where is the PE10 today? 19.93:
Interested in the mean, median, minimum or the maximum? Multpl.com has those too:
Mean: 16.37
Median: 15.74
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.20 (Dec 1999)?
Greenbackd 
excellent, i was using the Shiller spreadsheet, this is more practical, thanks.
LikeLike
That is fantastic! I have been looking for something like this!
LikeLike
I’m wondering what exactly that chart reveals.
If we take into account interest rates, with the US 2yr rate is less than 1% at the moment, the implied earnings yield on that PE is about 5% (earnings yield of course equalling the inverse of P/E, thus 1/19.93 = approx 5% at the moment).
Does that imply
(i) a fair bit of risk premium in equity markets? ie. 5-1% = 4%, which seems higher than that of the last few decades (it averaged 0% for the last 20yrs)
(ii) a return to equity risk premiums of old, which were based on the last 100 yrs? (no idea what this would be, but when I last did a DCF class in 1990 the rule of thumb was an equity risk premium of about 6%).
(iii) a forward-looking PE based on higher economic growth expectations (and as stupid as it sounds, higher US interest rates)? ie. economic growth may force higher rates, whereby the interest rate curve will become closer to the earnings yield.
(iv) a return back to early 1990’s territory where prices were ‘justifiably cheap’, before the productivity & low inflation boom?
(v) an average market PE which still has not reached bargain basement value? ie. based on that whole curve, including the roaring 90s and noughties, average PE was 16x. Based on the curve before the ‘distortion’ of the last 15 yrs, average PE was 14x.
Useful to have that graph handy, at the least to inform as what the market PE is. I’m just curious as to what else it tells us and how we can glean value from it.
Cheers,
Chris
LikeLike