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Archive for March, 2009

In a paper published in February this year, Entrepreneurial Shareholder Activism: Hedge Funds and Other Private Investors, April Klein and Emanuel Zur examine recent “confrontational activism campaigns” by “entrepreneurial shareholder activists” and conclude that such strategies generate “significantly positive market reaction for the target firm around the initial Schedule 13D filing date” and “significantly positive returns over the subsequent year.”

The paper confirms our view that the filing of a 13D notice by an activist hedge fund is a catalytic event for a firm that heralds substantial positive returns in the stock.

Klien and Zur define an entrepreneurial shareholder activist as “an investor who buys a large stake in a publicly held corporation with the intention to bring about change and thereby realize a profit on the investment,” which seems quite broad. They define “confrontational activist campaign” very narrowly, including only campaigns beginning with the filing of a 13D notice in which the activist’s clear purpose is to redirect managements’ efforts without working with or communicating with management:

The redirections stated in the Schedule 13D purpose statement include (but are not limited to) seeking seats on the company’s board, opposing an existing merger or liquidation of the firm, pursuing strategic alternatives, or replacing the CEO. We exclude 13D filings that are filed because the investor is “unwilling to give up the option of affecting the firm” (Clifford (2008, p. 326)). We also exclude 13D filings if the investor states an interest in working with or communicating with management on a regular basis. These restrictions limit our analyses to activist campaigns that can be characterized as aggressive or confrontational. (Emphasis added)

Klien and Zur find that such strategies generate significant positive stock returns:

Specifically, hedge fund targets earn 10.2% average abnormal stock returns during the period surrounding the initial Schedule 13D. Other activist targets experience a significantly positive average abnormal return of 5.1% around the SEC filing window. These findings suggest that, on average, the market believes activism creates shareholder value. Our findings are consistent with those of Holderness and Sheehan (1985), who document significant price increases for firms targeted by “notorious” corporate raiders of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and also with those of Bethel, Liebeskind, and Opler (1998), who show similar results for firms targeted by individuals, rather than corporate or institutional large shareholders. The positive abnormal returns also are consistent with the work of Brav et al. (2008), who find positive market reactions for a sample of confrontational and nonconfrontational hedge fund Schedule 13D filings. Furthermore, our target abnormal returns do not dissipate in the 1-year period following the initial Schedule 13D. Instead, hedge fund targets earn an additional 11.4% abnormal return during the subsequent year, and other activist targets realize a 17.8% abnormal return over the year following the activists’ interventions.

One particularly interesting observation in the paper is the distinction between the strategies of hedge funds on one hand and other investors (individuals, private equity funds, venture capital firms, and asset management groups for wealthy investors) on the other. Klien and Zur believe that hedge funds address the “free cash flow problem:”

Under this theory, firms can reduce agency conflicts between managers and shareholders by reducing excess cash on hand, and by obligating managers to make continuous payouts in the form of increased dividends and interest payments to creditors. Consistent with this view, hedge fund targets initially have higher levels of cash on hand than do other entrepreneurial activist targets. In addition, hedge fund activists frequently demand that the target firm buy back its own shares, cut the CEO’s salary, or initiate dividends, whereas other activists do not make these demands. Consequently, over the fiscal year following the initial Schedule 13D, hedge fund targets, on average, double their dividends, significantly increase their debt-to assets ratio, and significantly decrease their cash and short-term investments.

In contrast to the hedge funds, the other investors seek to “redirect investment strategies:”

In their initial Schedule 13Ds, they most frequently demand changes in the targets’ operating strategies. Consistent with these requests, when comparing hedge fund and other entrepreneurial activist targets, we find significant differences in changes in R&D and capital expenditures in the year following the 13D filing, with the other entrepreneurial activist targets experiencing significant declines in both parameters.

We believe that Klien and Zur’s finding that confrontational activism campaigns by entrepreneurial shareholder activists generate significant positive returns in the 12 months following the filing of the 13D notice is further compelling evidence for Greenbackd’s investment strategy.

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Avigen Inc (NASDAQ:AVGN) has filed two letters sent to MediciNova Inc (NASDAQ:MNOV) and intends to present the letters at the special meeting “to demonstrate the tone and character of the negotiation discussions between MediciNova and Avigen and its advisors.”

We’ve been following AVGN (see archived posts here) because it’s a net cash stock (i.e. it’s trading at less than the value of its cash after deducting all liabilities) and specialist biotechnology investor Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF) has been pushing it to liquidate and return its cash to shareholders. MediciNova Inc (NASDAQ:MNOV) has made an offer for AVGN that we think represents a clever way for AVGN’s stockholders to receive cash equivalent to that which they would receive in a liquidation (less $7M to be paid to MNOV) with the possibility for “an extraordinary, uncapped return” if MNOV is successful post-merger. The stock is up 60% from $0.65 to close at $1.04 yesterday. We estimate AVGN’s net cash value to be $37M or $1.24 per share (BVF estimates $1.20 per share). The net cash estimate does not take into account AVGN’s AV411 assets and program, which could be worth considerably more, perhaps as much as $10M to $25M or between $0.30 or $0.65 per share.

The first letter is from AVGN:

March 10, 2009

Jeff Himawan, PhD
Chairman of Board
MediciNova
435 Tasso Street
Palo Alto, CA 94301

Dear Jeff,

I write in response to Mr. Moch’s letter dated March 6, 2009, and a follow-up email to Andrew Singer on March 9, 2009.

We have still not heard back from MedicNova on its availability for either a teleconference or face-to-face meeting with the Avigen management to review MedicNova’s development plans and finances. As you know, we offered on Friday, March 6th, and then again on Monday, March 9, 2009, to have such a meeting. This is the initial step taken by all other interested parties and we continue to believe that it is an appropriate next step in our negotiations. Time is of the essence if MediciNova would like to be seriously considered as one of the final proposals we will evaluate and urge you to act accordingly.

As you know, after extensive negotiations on a confidentiality agreement between our two companies, Avigen finally agreed to MediciNova’s demand that the confidentiality agreement between our companies not contain a standstill provision at this time. This, as you know, is unlike the form of confidentiality agreement that the other interested companies have readily signed. Moreover, Avigen and MediciNova share a common asset – ibudilast (AV411 and MN-166). It appears to us that MediciNova does not consider these two facts as warranting any additional precautions for Avigen stockholders. We disagree. Avigen stockholders could be harmed if MediciNova used confidential information in a hostile offer. As a result, and as we agreed with your counsel, Avigen will not share any confidential information regarding ibudilast until we have a more robust confidentiality agreement with a standstill provision. Sharing such information could irreparably harm our stockholder’s AV411 asset by devaluing any competitive advantage that we currently hold through extensive know-how in the areas preclinical and clinical research, as well as intellectual property.

As for sharing of information, therefore, I request that we adhere to our earlier understanding that we will not to share ibudilast related information until our discussions have progressed further, we have a greater level of comfort that a deal may be consummated, and we have a more robust confidentiality agreement with a standstill provision. To that end, I request that you remove all ibudliast material from the electronic data room before we access it. As a precaution, I request that you agree to waive confidentiality on any ibudilast information inadvertently left in the electronic data room. It would also be very helpful if you could provide us with a table of contents so that we can begin to consider how best to review the material if, and when, the time is appropriate.

I urge you to consider scheduling a meeting (teleconference or face-to-face) as soon as practicable. We will make every effort to accommodate your schedule and commit our full attention.

With kind regards,

Kenneth Chahine, Ph.D., J.D.
Chief Executive Officer and President
Avigen, Inc.

cc: Dr. Yuichi Iwaki
Ken Moch

The second letter is from AVGN’s financial advisor:

Jeff Himawan, Ph.D.
Chairman of the Board
MediciNova Inc.
4350 La Jolla Village Drive
Suite 950
San Diego, CA 92122

Dear Jeff,

Thank you again for your proposal and your continued interest in Avigen.

As you are aware, for a couple of months Avigen has been diligently reviewing prospective merger candidates, including MediciNova. The interest in a merger with Avigen has been significant and we have received several written proposals. The Board of Directors of Avigen is now at a point at which it would like to advance the most promising proposals.

To that end, we are asking all interested bidders to provide their best proposal in writing this week so we can take the proposals to the Avigen Board on or about Monday, March 16.

We currently anticipate that the Board will select a subset of the proposals and authorize management to proceed with diligence with only that limited group.

As Avigen is a small company it is simply not feasible for Avigen to move forward with all interested parties at once. We intend to review the proposal that you submit this week in conjunction with all of the other proposals that we receive and “narrow the field” to the most attractive proposals.

As I am sure you can appreciate, the Board will not present to stockholders a transaction unless it is valued above the liquidation value of the company. Currently, we do not believe that MediciNova’s offer is superior to our liquidation threshold. Please keep in mind that for your proposal to be selected you not only will need to provide a proposal which is superior to liquidation, but also one which is superior to the numerous other proposals we have received and may receive in the future.

To assist parties with revising their proposals, we are providing each one with some suggestions (based on a comparison of all existing proposals as well as the Board’s desire to maximize shareholder value) on how their offer might be improved from the shareholders’ perspective.

Accordingly and per your request for detailed feedback, please allow us to provide some specifics on your proposal:

1. You have offered 1.75 million shares of MNOV stock in exchange for $7 million in Avigen cash. Based on yesterday’s closing price of $1.78 per share, those shares are only worth $3.1 million. That is a discount of $3.9 million, or over 50%. Furthermore the MNOV stock is quite illiquid. This illiquidity suggests to us that shareholders would get far less than the $3.1 million “face value” of the offered stock should they choose to sell.

2. The conversion feature in your offer is at a significant premium to the current stock price. The $4.00 per share conversion price currently represents a premium of over 100% and thus we view the Avigen shareholders’ probability of converting as very low. Given the short time frame of the convertible security (one year from close) and the high premium, the option value of the convertible security is only a few cents per Avigen share based on traditional Black-Scholes valuation methodology.

3. You place essentially no value on two of Avigen’s assets: AV411 and milestone payments that Avigen believes are likely to come due from a 2005 transaction with Genzyme. Put differently, under your proposal, because of the high conversion price of the convertible security, MediciNova stockholders prior to the transaction capture much of the future value from AV411 and Genzyme rather than existing Avigen stockholders.

4. The cash underlying the convertible security will still be at risk to a claim by creditors.

There are a number of changes that might make the MediciNova proposal competitive with the other proposals we have received and enhance its attractiveness to Avigen’s shareholders. MediciNova might consider offering:

1. a premium for cash, rather than a significant discount
2. a significantly lower conversion premium on the convertible security
3. more flexible conversion terms that might favor Avigen stockholders
4. a longer term on the convertible security to increase the option value
5. a significant value placed on the AV411 program and Genzyme milestone
6. alternative liquidity option to mitigate the illiquidity of the MNOV stock
7. other structures that do not put the Avigen stockholders’ cash at risk of a default or bankruptcy

We hope you find our feedback and suggestions helpful. We would be happy to have you as one of the parties with whom we move forward but your proposal would need to address our comments in order for us to do that. We truly hope that you will improve your offer and resubmit it by Friday, March 13 to maximize the competitiveness of your proposal with Avigen’s other alternatives. In the meantime, if you have any questions, please feel free to call me.

Sincerely,

Andrew E. Singer
Managing Director
Health Care Investment Banking

[Full Disclosure:  We have a holding in AVGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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Avigen Inc (NASDAQ:AVGN) has filed its 10K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008.

We’ve been following AVGN (see archived posts here) because it’s a net cash stock (i.e. it’s trading at less than the value of its cash after deducting all liabilities) and specialist biotechnology investor Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF) has been pushing it to liquidate and return its cash to shareholders. MediciNova Inc (NASDAQ:MNOV) has made an offer for AVGN that we think represents a clever way for AVGN’s stockholders to receive cash equivalent to that which they would receive in a liquidation (less $7M to be paid to MNOV) with the possibility for “an extraordinary, uncapped return” if MNOV is successful post-merger. The stock is up 60% from $0.65 to close at $1.04 yesterday. We initially estimated AVGN’s net cash value to be around $1.22 per share (BVF estimates $1.20 per share). We’ve now increased our estimate slightly to $37M or $1.24 per share. The net cash estimate does not take into account AVGN’s AV411 assets and program, which could be worth considerably more, perhaps as much as $10M to $25M or between $0.30 or $0.65 per share.

The value proposition updated

AVGN used net cash in operating activities of $21.1m in 2008. While the cash burn rate has been reduced, it still represents a significant risk for AVGN stockholders. AVGN has attempted to reduce cash burn but expects to incur future expenses in connection with efforts to monetize the AV411 assets and evaluate merger and acquisition proposals. AVGN does expect that expenses for 2009 will be significantly below the spending levels of recent years. Our updated estimate for the company’s net cash value is set out below (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

avgn-summary-2009-1-31Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

AVGN does not have any off-balance-sheet arrangements. Its total contractual obligations not included in the balance sheet include $3.2M in operating leases and $1.8M in research funding for third parties.

Conclusion

At its $1.04 closing price yesterday, AVGN is trading at a 20% discount to our estimate of its net cash value of $37M or $1.24 per share. The liquidation value could be considerably higher again, as we have not included in the estimate the potential value of the AV411 assets and program, which could be worth an additional $10M to $25M or between $0.30 or $0.65 per share. BVF has made considerable head way, and we believe they have a good chance of securing the AVGN board seats they seek. The stock is up considerably since we initiated the position, but has not yet reached our estimate of value, and so we are maintaining our position.

[Full Disclosure: We have a holding in AVGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.]

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Autobytel Inc (NASDAQ:ABTL) has filed its 10K for the year ended December 31, 2008.

We’ve been following ABTL (see our post archive here) because it is trading at a discount to its liquidation value. We initially estimated the company’s liquidation value at $35.3M or $0.78 per share. We’ve now adjusted our valuation down significantly to $24.3M or $0.54 per share, partially because of the deterioration in ABTL’s balance sheet and partially because our initial analysis was overly optimistic (ABTL was one of our earliest posts). This is a disappointing outcome, but with the stock trading at less than half its liquidation value and 80% of its net cash value we plan to hold on for the moment.

The value proposition updated

ABTL has consumed a great deal of cash over the last 12 months, using $20M net cash in operating activities primarily from a net operating loss and an increase in its net working capital. Its principal sources of liquidity are from proceeds from dispositions of non-core businesses and the patent litigation settlement payments. ABTL has no debt and its cash and cash equivalents totaled $27.4 million as of December 31, 2008 compared to cash and cash equivalents of $27.6 million as of December 31, 2007. Our estimate for ABTL’s liquidation value is set out below (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

abtl-summary-2008-1-311We estimate ABTL’s net cash position at $15.4M or $0.34 per share and its liquidation value at $24.3M or $0.54 per share. Further cash payments are expected from the settlement with Dealix Corporation of $2.7M in March 2009 and 2010, which should bolster this position further.

Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

ABTL does not have any off-balance sheet arrangements. Its contractual obligations are around $3.4M in total through 2011, consisting of $1.8M in operating leases and $1.5M in purchase obligations.

A trancript of the company’s earnings conference call is available here.

Conclusion

Our position in ABTL has been a disappointing one, and has dragged down the performance of the portfolio. We propose to hold on for the time being, however, as the stock is trading at a price at which we would enter it, and so it makes no sense to exit.

[Full Disclosure:  We do not have a holding in ABTL. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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Soapstone Networks Inc (NASDAQ:SOAP) has filed its 10K for the year ended December 31, 2008.

We started following SOAP on February 2 this year (see our post archive here) because it was trading well below its net cash value with an activist investor, Mithras Capital, disclosing an 8.7% holding in October last year. The stock is up 18.8% from $2.50 when we initiated our position to close Friday at $2.97, giving SOAP a market capitalization of $39.1M. We last estimated the company’s net cash value to be $86.1M or $5.78 per share. We are maintaining our estimate of the company’s net cash value but reducing the per share estimate to $5.59 because there is additional stock on issue.

The value proposition updated

The company’s balance sheet value is now almost wholly cash (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

soap-summary-2009-1-31

Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

SOAP does not have any off-balance-sheet arrangements and its contractual obligations, which consist entirely of operating leases, are $4.1M. These operating lease payments are the minimum lease payments under SOAP’s non-cancellable operating leases. SOAP treats payments made under its operating leases as rent expense for the facilities, including its head office.

Conclusion

As we’ve said on a number of occasions, we continue to believe that SOAP is one of the best opportunities available at the moment. The company’s ongoing business is small in comparison to its net cash position, so it shouldn’t dissipate its cash any time soon. It has no off-balance sheet arrangements, little in the way of ongoing contractual obligations and no material litigation, so the cash position seems reasonably certain. The company’s engagement of an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives is a promising step in the right direction. The only concern for us is the continued issuance of stock and options at a huge discount to liquidation value. The sooner Mithras Capital gets control of this situation the better.

[Full Disclosure:  We have a holding in SOAP. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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OrthoLogic Corporation (NASDAQ:CAPS) has filed its 10K for the year ended December 31, 2008.

We’ve been following CAPS (see our post archive here) because it trades below its net cash value and Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF) has disclosed a 13.42% holding. It’s an unusual holding for us because BVF’s holding is passive. At CAPS’s $0.51 close Friday it has a market capitalization of $20.8M. Our initial estimate for CAPS’s net cash value was $44.1M or $1.08 per share. We’ve now adjusted that valuation to $43.8M or $1.07 per share. CAPS’s cash burn rate is quite high relative to its net cash position, so rapid steps need to be taken for this to be a profitable investment.

The value proposition updated

The summary of our estimate for the company’s liquidation value is set out below (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

caps-summary-2009-1-31

Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

There is no discussion in the 10K about CAPS’s off-balance sheet arrangements. CAPS’s only contractual obligation disclosed in 10K is for the company’s Tempe, Arizona facility and is $1.3M through 2012.

Conclusion

At its $0.51 close Friday, CAPS is trading at 47% of our estimate of its $1.07 per share net cash value. The risk for this investment continues to be that CAPS dissipates its cash before it or BVF can salvage any value. Management is taking steps to reduce its cash burn and repurchase undervalued stock, which is encouraging.

[Full Disclosure:  We do not have a holding in CAPS. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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Ditech Networks Inc (NASDAQ:DITC) has filed its 10Q for the period ended January 31, 2009.

We’ve been following DITC (see our archive here) because it is trading well below its net cash value with an investor, Lamassu Holdings LLC, disclosing a 9.4% holding in November last year. Lamassu has offered to acquire DITC for $1.25 per share in cash. Lamassu says that it “anticipates its due diligence requirement will take no more than two weeks and there is no financing contingency.” The stock is up 19.1% from $0.89 to close Friday at $1.09, giving the company a market capitalization of $27.8M. We initially estimated the net cash value to be $37.9M or $1.44 per share. We’ve now adjusted our valuation down slightly to $34.3M or $1.31 per share.

The value proposition updated

DITC has continued to consume cash in its operations through the last quarter, bringing the cash burn in the last three quarters to $15.1M. As of January 31, 2009, DITC also had long-term investments of $8.2 million as compared to $15.1 million at April 30, 2008. These long-term investments are tied to auction rate securities that failed to settle at auction. Although these securities would normally be classified as short-term, as they typically settle every 7, 28 or 35 days, because they failed to settle at auction DITC has reclassified them to long-term pending them settling at auction. As of February 28, 2009, DITC continued to hold auction rate securities with a par value of $13.7M. Our updated valuation follows (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

ditc-summary-2009-1-31The company believes its “legacy business to be at or near cash flow break even” and this “will begin to be more evident in our financial results in the coming quarters:”

However, we do expect to continue to invest in our newer product offerings, which we believe will help diversify our customer base and hopefully add more predictability to our revenue streams. We expect that the investments in our new products will result in continued negative cash flows from operations until such time that we experience a resurgence of demand for our legacy products closer to their historical levels or our new products gain traction in the market and begin to generate meaningful revenue streams.

This is unfortunate. We think the best use of the company’s cash is its own undervalued stock.

Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

According to the 10Q, DITC has around $5.4M in contractual commitments (including $2.7M in operating leases and $2.7M in purchase commitments), around $2.9 of which falls due this year and the remainder falling due within the next 3 years. DITC has no other material commitments.

Conclusion

We propose to maintain our position in DITC and will continue to hold it in the Greenbackd Portfolio.

[Full Disclosure:  We do not have a holding in DITC. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF) has filed the slides to its presentation to the stockholders of Avigen Inc (Nasdaq: AVGN) to remove the existing directors at the special meeting to be held March 27, 2009.

The slides can be viewed here.

We’ve been following AVGN (see archived posts here) because it’s a net cash stock (i.e. it’s trading at less than the value of its cash after deducting all liabilities) and specialist biotechnology activist fund BVF has been pushing it to liquidate and return its cash to shareholders. MediciNova Inc (NASDAQ:MNOV) has made an offer for AVGN that we think represents a clever way for AVGN’s stockholders to receive cash equivalent to that which they would receive in a liquidation (less $7M to be paid to MNOV) with the possibility for “an extraordinary, uncapped return” if MNOV is successful post-merger. The stock is up 68% from $0.65 to close at $1.09 on Friday. We are maintaining our position because we estimate AVGN’s liquidation value to be around 12% higher at $1.22 per share (BVF estimates $1.20 per share).

BVF has also issued the following press release:

BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUE FUND CONFIRMS NOMINEES’ PLANS IF ELECTED TO THE AVIGEN BOARD AT SPECIAL MEETING

Urges Stockholders to Vote to Remove Current Board and Elect its Slate of Four Stockholder-Oriented Independent Nominees

Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. (“BVF”), today confirmed its plans for the future of Avigen, Inc. (Nasdaq: AVGN) if stockholders remove the current members of the Avigen Board and replace them with BVF’s four new, stockholder-oriented, independent director nominees at the Special Meeting of stockholders to be held on March 27, 2009. BVF, the beneficial owner of approximately 30% of the Company’s outstanding common stock, has called the Special Meeting to give stockholders the opportunity to protect what remains of Avigen’s assets, which it believes are in danger of being completely wasted by the Board. Upon the removal of the current Board and election of BVF’s nominees, subject to the nominees’ fiduciary duties, BVF pledges the following:

· First, all stockholders who desire liquidity will have the immediate ability to cash out of their investment in Avigen and receive a payment of $1.00 per share by tendering their shares into the BVF tender. Stockholders who do not wish to sell their shares will have the opportunity to participate with BVF in the future of Avigen;

· Next, the nominees will immediately announce that Avigen will only consider and proceed with strategic transactions that guarantee a quantified worst-case outcome of approximately Avigen’s liquidation value;

· Next, the nominees will then commence negotiations with MediciNova, with the goal of reaching an agreement on the best terms possible for all Avigen stockholders;

· Next, the nominees will consider any other transactions that satisfied the downside protection requirements described above; and

· Ultimately, the nominees will present any transaction that satisfies the downside protection requirements described above and that the nominees believe is in the best interests of stockholders to stockholders for their approval.

Should the nominees be unable to negotiate final terms with a third party that satisfies the requirements described above, or should such transaction not be approved by stockholders, the nominees intend to promptly return the Company’s remaining cash to stockholders.

Mark N. Lampert BVF Partner stated, “In addition to confirming our plan for the future of the Company, we also wanted to clarify a few remaining issues for stockholders. Specifically, neither BVF nor its nominees have any financial interest or other stake in MediciNova or its proposed transaction. Our only concern is for the fair valuation and prevention of lost value of Avigen. Our interest in Avigen is solely as stockholders – we have never sought, nor would we accept, any benefit solely for ourselves. In addition, in the event they are elected to the Board, our nominees will not receive any compensation for their services as directors of Avigen, other than Mr. Coppedge who stands to receive only nominal director fees. We encourage stockholders to act now to protect their investment by voting the GOLD proxy card today.”

[Full Disclosure: We have a holding in AVGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.]

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CuraGen Corporation (NASDAQ:CRGN) has filed its 10K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008.

We’ve been following CRGN since January 20, 2009 (see our post archive here) because it is a net cash stock with an investor, DellaCamera Capital Management, pushing the company to seek “alternative deployment of [its] capital.” DellaCamera Capital Management has since increased its stake from 5.6% to 6.5% and nominated two candidates to the board. The stock is up 33% from $0.67 when we started following it to $0.89 yesterday, giving CRGN a market capitalization of around $50.8M. We initially estimated CRGN’s net cash value to be around $62M or $1.07 per share. After reviewing the filing, we’ve slightly decreased our valuation to $59.9M or $1.05 per share, which means CRGN is still trading at around 85% of its liquidation value.

The value proposition updated

The company is not generating any operating cash flow as it is a “biopharmaceutical development company,” so the challenge for DellaCamera Capital Management is to persuade the company to pay a special dividend or liquidate before it dissipates its remaining cash. CRGN’s value still lies in its $64.9M net cash position (the “Book Value” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating Value” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

crgn-summary-2008-10k1CRGN’s $87.6M in cash and cash equivalents consists of $19.1M in cash and equivalents, $30.3M in short-term investments and $38.2M in marketable securities.

Off-balance sheet arrangements and Contractual obligations

According to CRGN’s 10K, the company does not have any off-balance sheet arrangements. Its enforceable and legally binding obligations, along with future commitments related to all contracts that it is likely to continue, regardless of the fact that they are “cancelable as of December 31, 2008,” excluding those captured in the financial statements, are around $5.0M through 2011.

Deducting the $5.0M from the $64.9M in net assets leaves around $59.9M in liquidation value or $1.05 per share.

Conclusion

We are reasonably comfortable with the progress of CRGN and will continue to hold it in the Greenbackd Portfolio.

[Full Disclosure:  We do not have a holding in CRGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]

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Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF) yesterday filed additional material in the proxy solicitation to remove the existing directors of Avigen Inc (Nasdaq: AVGN) at the special meeting to be held March 27, 2009. BVF is urging stockholders to remove the current members of the AVGN and replace them with BVF’s four “new, stockholder-oriented, independent director nominees.” BVF has called the special meeting “to give stockholders the opportunity to protect what remains of [AVGN]’s assets, which it believes are in danger of being completely wasted by the Board.”

We’ve been following AVGN (see archived posts here) because it’s a net cash stock (i.e. it’s trading at less than the value of its cash after deducting all liabilities) and specialist biotechnology activist fund BVF has been pushing it to liquidate and return its cash to shareholders. MediciNova Inc (NASDAQ:MNOV) has made an offer for AVGN that we think represents a clever way for AVGN’s stockholders to receive cash equivalent to that which they would receive in a liquidation (less $7M to be paid to MNOV) with the possibility for “an extraordinary, uncapped return” if MNOV is successful post-merger. We estimate AVGN’s cash at around $1.22 per share (BVF estimates $1.20 per share), which is around 16% higher than AVGN’s $1.05 close yesterday.

BVF’s press release is set out below:

BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUE FUND, L.P.

March 12, 2009

VOTE THE ENCLOSED GOLD PROXY CARD TO HELP UNLOCK VALUE AT AVIGEN, INC.

ELECT DIRECTORS WHO ARE DEDICATED TO MAXIMIZING VALUE FOR ALL AVIGEN STOCKHOLDERS BY REDUCING CORPORATE WASTE AND PROTECTING STOCKHOLDERS’ DOWNSIDE RISK WHILE MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE POTENTIAL

Dear Fellow Stockholders:

We, the Biotechnology Value Fund (“BVF”), are the owners of 8,819,600 shares, or approximately 30% of Avigen’s outstanding common stock. Since we took the lead in protecting value for all stockholders of Avigen in October of 2008, the stock price has increased by over 65%. We have successfully caused the Avigen management team and Board to reduce expenses and sell off programs that they do not have the necessary expertise to develop. We now need your participation to secure Avigen’s substantial remaining value by removing the members of the current self-serving Board and electing our independent nominees who are committed to protecting value for all stockholders.

Let me state from the outset that we neither seek, nor would we accept, any consideration or benefit solely for ourselves. Avigen has falsely accused us of this numerous times, even though we have been crystal clear on this fundamental issue all along. We are waging this effort because (a) we feel a sense of responsibility to do so on behalf of all stockholders given our unique position as the largest stockholder and (b) we believe it is the right thing to do, especially in the context of the current economic environment caused, in part, by similar self-serving managements and Boards.

Throughout this process we have sought only three simple things:

1. that Avigen stop recklessly wasting stockholder money;

2. that stockholders be empowered to decide the fate of Avigen’s remaining cash; and

3. that stockholders be guaranteed a quantified worst-case outcome of approximately Avigen’s liquidation value.

Thus far we have made progress with #1 and #2 above. Facing pressure from BVF, Avigen has abandoned, at least temporarily, its plan to spend money on its remaining products. In addition, the Company has now been forced to call a special meeting to finally permit stockholders the opportunity to weigh in. Prior to our intervention, Avigen’s stock traded at a mere 33% of the cash in the bank and at a steep discount to its current price. This is a remarkable reflection on how poorly Avigen was and is viewed by the investment community. Prior to our intervention, Avigen’s plan was to spend all stockholder money over two years on uncompelling products that it has subsequently conceded were not worthy of investment.

It is worth reflecting on some of Avigen’s historical “accomplishments”:

1. Avigen has consumed over $250 million of investor capital, with little value to show for it. Why should they be entrusted with the last $50 million?

2. Avigen selected a Chief Executive Officer who lives in Park City, Utah when the Company is based in California.

3. Avigen has committed to pay significant fees in the form of golden parachutes to its senior executives and multiple investment bankers, lawyers and consultants in an amount that, we believe, could exceed $5 million under certain circumstances.

4. Despite purporting to have reduced their use of cash and working to protect stockholders, we believe Avigen will spend nearly $20 million, or over $0.65 per share, between the time they announced the failure of AV650 and when they supposedly hope to complete a merger.

5. Avigen adopted a “poison pill,” which we believe is just another example of the Board acting first to protect their jobs rather than the stockholders they have a fiduciary duty to represent.

6. Avigen delayed calling the special meeting for approximately two months before setting a rushed meeting date that we believe was set to prevent stockholders from having adequate opportunity to receive and review proxy materials and vote at the special meeting.

We have grown increasingly dismayed that Avigen’s Board and management team, who collectively own little stock, have wasted money on golden parachutes, multiple investment bankers, consultants and lawyers. Had Avigen merely agreed to guarantee a worst case scenario for stockholders, this fight would not have transpired. Thus, we can only conclude that Avigen is likely to gamble stockholders’ remaining capital that, precedent warns, could result in a near total destruction of stockholder value.

We are frankly surprised that the Board has not previously addressed our concerns by affirmatively and unequivocally agreeing to proceed only with a transaction that provides for stockholders to receive no less than the Company’s approximate liquidation value. In fact, it appears to us that the Board is only now even mentioning an undefined intent to provide some merger liquidity in response to our demand for full downside protection for all stockholders. We believe that Avigen’s shares are undervalued by the market as a result of stockholders’ concern about the direction the current Board is taking the Company. New leadership is needed to prevent further erosion of each stockholder’s investment in Avigen, as well as to take advantage of opportunities that exist to maximize stockholder value.

WITHOUT ANY EVIDENT RATIONAL MOTIVE, AVIGEN HAS NOT AGGRESSIVELY PURSUED THE COMPELLING MERGER PROPOSAL BY MEDICINOVA THAT OFFERED BOTH DOWNSIDE PROTECTION AND SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE TO ALL AVIGEN STOCKHOLDERS

Unlike the current Board, we believe that a merger with MediciNova makes sense for all Avigen stockholders and we cannot understand why only lip service was paid to pursue a deal with MediciNova. Among the extraordinary potential benefits we see in a merger with MediciNova are:

Downside Protection: Based on our analysis, even if a merger with MediciNova is unsuccessful, Avigen stockholders would still receive the approximate current liquidation value of Avigen. This means that, even in the worst-case scenario, the merger would yield an approximate 65% premium to Avigen’s stock price before we submitted our request to the Company to call the special meeting.

Tremendous Upside Potential: Based on our analysis, if a merger with MediciNova is successful, Avigen stockholders could own a substantial percentage of MediciNova (approximately 45% of the combined company). We believe the Board has not had any substantive discussions with MediciNova. We do not understand why they have dismissed the offer as providing little value.

• Free Option: Under the terms of the proposed merger, stockholders would have at least one year after the merger is consummated to choose whether they want downside protection or upside potential, as described above. We believe this free option period offers stockholders tremendous upside potential with low risk.

Neither BVF nor its nominees have any financial interests in MediciNova. BVF is only interested in the superior transaction for ALL stockholders. We simply believe that in light of similar historical transactions, it is important that stockholders have downside protection. If BVF’s nominees are elected to the Board, stockholders can either tender their shares in the BVF tender, or not tender and participate with BVF in the future of Avigen, whether through a merger with MediciNova, subject to the nominees’ fiduciary obligations, or if the merger is not feasible, to consider liquidation or other similar type transactions. In any case all stockholders will get to choose and have the opportunity to get immediate cash back. The nominees intend to present any potential MediciNova transaction to stockholders for approval – ensuring that stockholders will get a true say in the future of Avigen.

We believe the Board’s failure to commit exclusively to a transaction that offers downside protection based on the Company’s liquidation value suggests that the Board is considering other options, which will put the value of Avigen at risk. As the Company’s largest stockholder, we share the interest of all stockholders in protecting and preserving our investment. Unlike the directors and management, BVF only profits if the stock price goes up and shares the interest of all stockholders to increase share value and limit share loss. We receive no other payments or compensation.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF FAILED BIOTECHNOLOGY COMPANIES THAT HAVE FOUND THEMSELVES IN AVIGEN’S CURRENT SITUATION HAVE MANAGED TO DESTROY BETWEEN 80%-99% OF STOCKHOLDER VALUE FROM THEIR THEN LIQUIDATION VALUE

We are concerned that Avigen will enter into a transaction without downside protection that would end up destroying value. We have good reason to fear this, because most recent mergers involving companies similarly situated to Avigen (e.g., Transcept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Anesiva, Inc., ARCA biopharma, Inc., Evotec Aktiengesellschaft, Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. and others), managed to destroy stockholder value. In each of these transactions, the stock prices declined over 80% from their liquidation value following the Board’s decision to pursue a transaction, resulting in aggregate lost value in excess of $200 million. Of course the management, directors, and bankers took their millions of dollars of fees in cash rather than stock in the companies they supposedly supported. The directors and management of companies like Avigen deserve recognition: it is quite a feat to destroy 80% of the liquidation value of a company possessing little else but cash! The charts below illustrate these astonishing failures.

bvf-charts-1-and-21bvf-charts-3-4-and-5* Approximate net cash per share liquidation value at time of negative binary event.

This repeated lost value and waste is a key reason why we believe downside protection is so important for all stockholders. We want to prevent Avigen from joining this long and infamous list of failures. This is a key reason why we believe the MediciNova transaction is so attractive.

WE BELIEVE THE AVIGEN BOARD IS ENTRENCHING ITSELF AS IT PREPARES TO ENTER INTO AN EGREGIOUS TRANSACTION THAT COULD BURN THROUGH OUR COMPANY’S REMAINING CASH

In a shameless example of protecting their own self-interest, in October 2008 Avigen increased its golden parachute payments, allegedly to attract and retain executive talent. Our first question is: which executive employees does Avigen need to retain when, in our view, Avigen does not possess a viable business? We have estimated that the golden parachute payouts total at least $2 million. Payments to consultants, bankers and lawyers are quickly adding up as well. Given the current economic conditions, we find it irresponsible for Avigen to engage in such behavior that amounts to a slap in the face of all Avigen stockholders. The recent addition of a poison pill by the Board adds further insult to stockholders who have already been insulted by a Board that ignores their pleas.

We are afraid that if the current Board remains in place, they will burn through Avigen’s remaining cash by engaging in a transaction that will further destroy stockholder value. For example, any transaction proposed by Avigen is likely to have a substantial and non-refundable breakup fee that will not be returned to stockholders even if a transaction is not approved. Everyday that the current Board remains in place, the cash per share is dwindling.

AFTER DELAYING THE SPECIAL MEETING FOR MONTHS, THE BOARD FINALLY SET AN ACCELERATED MEETING DATE TO TRY AND PREVENT STOCKHOLDERS FROM HAVING AN OPPORTUNITY TO LET THEIR VOICE BE HEARD

The Board has now set March 27, 2009 as the date for the special meeting of stockholders. We delivered our notice to the board demanding that a special meeting be called approximately two months ago. Finally, after nearly two months of delay and significant and unnecessary corporate waste, the Company announced a March 27, 2009 meeting date, which will occur in just over two weeks, barely enough time to deliver our proxy materials to you. At this critical meeting, Avigen stockholders will be given the opportunity to remove the entire Board and elect independent directors who will strive to preserve and enhance value for all Avigen stockholders. We hope that you will support us by immediately voting the enclosed GOLD proxy card. If you Share our Concern for the Future of Our Company, Do Not Delay, Vote Your Gold Proxy Card Today.

TIME IS SHORT

Act Now to Protect Your Investment By Voting The Enclosed Gold Proxy Card Today

Unfortunately, we have come to the conclusion that the current Board is not fit to run our Company and that it will continue to destroy stockholder value if it is not replaced. Please join our campaign to maximize stockholder value by voting the enclosed GOLD proxy card today.

If you have any questions or need assistance in voting your GOLD proxy card, please contact our proxy solicitors, MacKenzie Partners, Inc., Toll-Free at 1-800-322-2885 or 1-212-929-5500 (call collect) or by email at proxy@mackenziepartners.com. We look forward to speaking to many of you during the course of this campaign and hope that we can count on your support.

Sincerely,

/s/ Mark N. Lampert
Mark N. Lampert
Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P.

[Full Disclosure: We have a holding in AVGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.]

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