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Archive for December 16th, 2008

We posted about Avigen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGN) on December 1, 2008, noting that it was a rare opportunity because it was a net cash stock (i.e. it was trading at less than the value of its cash after deducting all liabilities). Since our initial post, AVGN has fallen from $0.65 to close yesterday at $0.54. At $0.54, AVGN has a market capitalization of $16.1M against a net cash position of $36.5M, some 127% higher.

Biotechnology Value Fund (BVF), who we noted in our earlier post had an active interest in AVGN, filed an updated 13D last week. In the new filing BVF says that it sent a letter to AVGN “expressing its displeasure with [AVGN]’s recent performance and continued destruction of shareholder value.” The letter is reproduced below:

Members of the Board:

As you know, Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P., together with its affiliates, is the largest shareholder of Avigen, Inc. (“Avigen” or the “Company”), holding an ownership stake of approximately 29% of Avigen’s outstanding common stock. We first became investors in Avigen in 2004 and have provided capital directly to the Company. We are writing to express our frustration with recent developments at Avigen, particularly with what we perceive to be this Board’s self-serving actions and disregard of shareholder interests.

Since January 1, 2004, Avigen’s stock price has fallen more than 90% and the Company has accumulated a deficit of more than $110 million. Presently, Avigen’s stock trades at less than 1/3 of its net per share cash value, indicative of the investment community’s conviction that Avigen’s Board will destroy its remaining value. We have repeatedly reached out to the Company and have offered to work collaboratively to maximize shareholder value. The Company responded to our offers by unilaterally increasing and broadening management’s “golden parachute” severance agreements and by unilaterally adopting a “poison pill.”

The Board’s increase and broadening of its “golden parachute” severance agreements with management, under the ridiculous justification that such payouts are necessary to “attract and retain key employees,” is particularly outrageous given Avigen’s current circumstances. Our analysis indicates that these payouts, which we believe would be triggered by most “change in control” scenarios, including a liquidation, total at least $3 million, an incredible 20% of the Company’s entire market value. The recipients of these golden parachute arrangements include Avigen’s CEO, Ken Chahine, who resides in Park City, Utah, while the Company is based in California. How can the Company justify such actions as necessary to “attract and retain key employees” when Avigen has no real business at this time and has abandoned the development of all its products? These hastily adopted severance arrangements need to be revoked.

In addition, we believe the Board’s implementation of the “poison pill” serves no purpose other than to keep BVF from purchasing additional stock in the Company. We are concerned that management and Board members are more concerned with retaining their jobs and compensation than with maximizing shareholder value. As evidence, Avigen’s stock price has fallen more than 20% since the adoption of the poison pill. We find the poison pill to be disrespectful and offensive, given our substantial ownership position and our long history with the Company. Nevertheless, our response was to offer a compromise proposal: modify the poison pill to allow anyone to acquire as much stock as they like, however, neutralize the voting power on all shares of Avigen stock above a specified threshold. We specifically offered to have any additional shares that we acquire to abstain from voting or to vote in proportion to all other outstanding shares. This offer was not accepted. The pill should be redeemed altogether.

The Board’s recent actions reveal its true self-interest and leave us concerned that Avigen will indeed destroy and/or take all remaining value. Consequently, our primary issue has been and remains that Avigen immediately guarantee the worst case outcome for all shareholders. This guarantee could be accomplished in several ways, including by dividending or otherwise distributing all excess cash to shareholders now, or by offering to buy back any and all shares from holders that wish to sell at a specific price at a specific future date (i.e., $1.25 per share in December, 2009). In both cases, shareholders could stand to reap potentially substantial upside derived from the monetization of Avigen’s remaining assets and could finally stop worrying about whether the Company will destroy its substantial cash value. To the extent the Board believes it can generate value in excess of its cash in the bank today, offering downside protection ultimately costs the Company nothing. However, by rejecting our proposal to provide a downside guarantee, the Board has indicated its willingness to place its remaining cash at continued risk, without shareholder consent.

As the Company’s largest shareholder, we are fighting to return value to all shareholders, not just ourselves, and we feel a responsibility to do so. To be clear, we do not seek to impose our own agenda on Avigen, we only ask that shareholders be empowered to decide the fate of the Company’s residual cash, rather than the management and Board of a company which has repeatedly tried and failed to create any shareholder value whatsoever. Shareholders have good reason to worry that Avigen’s management fully intends to put its remaining cash at risk. Yesterday, at the RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference, CEO Ken Chahine said, “We are going to be looking at building…How do we do that?…There are some opportunities as well that have emerged from the credit crisis. There are some commercialization, or near-commercialization, type companies that could use an infusion of cash…Those are some of the things we are looking at. Now, will that be in the therapeutic space? It could be…We’re opening it up because I think that there are opportunities outside of therapeutics…We will spend the balance of 2009 trying to look for opportunities.” Mr. Chahine, shareholders do not need or want you to invest their money.

If recent empirical evidence with respect to numerous other failed biotech companies is any guide (e.g., Corgentech, Renovis, Novacea, Nitromed, Nuvelo and others), the future does not bode well for Avigen shareholders if left to its own devices. In one similar situation, the company could have returned in excess of $10/share in cash to shareholders had it been liquidated in 2005. Instead, after opting for a value-destroying merger, that company today trades at a mere 0.09 cents per share – a 99% decline! Avigen’s golden parachutes have incentivized management to merge with any company that will take it. Management would walk away with its $3 million cash windfall; shareholders would get stuck with potentially worthless stock in a merged company. In the current fiscal environment, shareholders will no longer tolerate such self-interested behavior on the part of failed biotechnology companies.

We believe the Avigen Board is not only willing to sacrifice and squander shareholder money but, in the process, its members are making a mockery of their obligations to fulfill their fiduciary duties as directors of the Company. To that end, please be advised that we intend to hold each member of the Board and management fully accountable for any continued erosion of value from the current liquidation value of the Company.

Sincerely,

Mark Lampert

Conclusion

As we noted in our earlier post, while it’s frightening to see AVGN hemorrhaging cash, BVF is working to persuade it to salvage what remains of the company’s value. If BVF is able to cause the company to quickly distribute its remaining cash to stockholders, AVGN is an attractive investment opportunity. The risk is that BVF is unable to persuade the company to do so before AVGN dissipates its remaining cash.

AVGN closed yesterday at 0.54.

The S&P 500 Index closed yesterday at 868.57.

[Disclosure: We do not presently have a holding in AVGN. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.]

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Electro Scientific Industries Inc (NASDAQ:ESIO) is one of the more complex undervalued asset plays we’ve dug up, but a worthwhile one to watch nonetheless. ESIO has announced a merger with Zygo Corporation (NASDAQ:ZIGO) and an authorization to buy back $100M in stock (see the October 16 announcement here). Activist investor David Nierenberg of Nierenberg Investment Management owns 15% of ESIO, supports the merger and is pushing the company to buy back stock. Management expects the the merger to be completed in the first calendar quarter of 2009.

About ESIO

ESIO and its subsidiaries provide high-technology manufacturing systems to the global electronics market, including advanced laser-based systems that are used to microengineer semiconductor device features in high-volume production environments. Website is here.

About ZIGO

ZIGO designs, develops, and manufactures ultra-high precision measurement solutions to improve its customers’ manufacturing yields, and top-tier optical sub-systems and components for original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and end-user applications. Website is here.

The value proposition

1. ESIO

As it stands now, ESIO is an undervalued asset sitation, with a market capitalization of $177M at yesterday’s close of $6.56. We estimate ESIO’s stand alone liquidating value at around $277M or $10.12 per share, which is 54% higher than its close, as the following summary analysis demonstrates (the “Carrying” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

esio-summary

2. ZIGO

ZIGO, ESIO’s partner in the merger, has a market capitalization of $110M at it’s $6.54 close yesterday. We estimate ZIGO’s stand alone liquidating value at $118M or $7.00 per share. At $6.54 ZIGO is trading only slightly lower (about 7%) than its $7.00 per share liquidating value, and so is close to value, as the following summary analysis demonstrates (the “Carrying” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

zigo-summary

The catalysts

1. Details of the merger

ESIO is offering 1.0233 shares of ESIO for each share of ZIGO. In the merger, ESIO will issue to ZIGO stockholders 18.1m shares of ESIO. This will increase the issued stock of ESIO from 27M pre merger to 45.1M post merger and give ZIGO stockholders 40% of ESIO. On October 15, the day before the announcement, ESIO closed at $10.07, valuing the merger $10.30 for each share of ZIGO, which had closed at $7.57.

The merger will reduce the liquidating value of each share of ESIO because ZIGO at $6.54 is trading much closer to its liquidating value than ESIO at $6.56. The following summary analysis shows ESIO after the merger with ZIGO is complete (the “Carrying” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

esio-zigo-summary

After the merger we estimate that ESIO stock will have a liquidating value of $391M. This equates to $8.66 per share when the expanded number of ESIO stock on issue are taken into account, down from $10.12 per share pre-merger with ZIGO. A liquidating value of $8.66 per share is around 32% higher than ESIO’s close yesterday but it’s nothing to get excited about. Fortunately, the buy back goes some of the way to restoring ESIO’s liquidating value to pre-merger levels.

2. Effect of the buy back

In the announcement of the merger with ZIGO, ESIO also announced an authorization to buy back $100M of stock. If that $100M buy back was completed at $6.56, the closing price of ESIO yesterday, ESIO would buy back around 15.2M shares, leaving around 29.9M on issue. The following summary analysis assumes that ESIO buys back $100M of stock at $6.56 and shows ESIO after the buy back is complete (the “Carrying” column shows the assets as they are carried in the financial statements, and the “Liquidating” column shows our estimate of the value of the assets in a liquidation):

esio-zigo-summary-post-buy-back

The buy back increases ESIO’s per share liquidating value from $8.66 to $9.74. It’s legitimate to question whether all of this sturm und drang is worth it if it only serves to reduce the liquidating value of ESIO. The honest answer is that we don’t know but we suspect that it’s probably not. We think it would have made more sense for ESIO to buy back its own shares rather than merge with ZIGO. If a merger with ZIGO was an inevitability, perhaps it would have been better to buy back the shares before the merger, especially since ESIO seems to be getting less in value from ZIGO than the value it is issuing to ZIGO’s shareholders. There is also a risk that the buy back will not proceed. According to the announcement,

The repurchases will be made at management’s discretion in the open market in compliance with applicable securities laws and other legal requirements and are subject to market conditions, share price and other factors. There is no fixed completion date for the repurchase program.

3. David Nierenberg

According to his most recent 13D, David Nierenberg (The Motely Fool has a profile here) of Nierenberg Investment Management owns 15% of ESIO. The filing details Nierenberg’s agreement with ESIO regarding ESIO’s stockholder rights plan, which prevents any stockholder – other than 19.99% owner Third Avenue Management LLC – from owning more than 15% of the company. If any stockholder purchases more than 15%, the plan limits the stockholder to voting only that portion of the stockholding up equivalent to 15% of the outstanding stock. The other shares automatically vote with ESIO’s board. Nierenberg’s agreement with ESIO provides that if ESIO buys back enough stock to push Nierenberg’s holdings over 15% of the outstanding shares, he will still be able to vote all of his stock as he wishes. The agreement will be in effect for a minimum of three years.

Conclusion

ESIO as a stand alone entity is deeply undervalued, trading at less than two-thirds of its $10.12 per share liquidating value. The effect of the merger – which appears likely to succeed – is to reduce ESIO’s per share liquidating value to $8.66, which is only 35% higher than the company’s close yesterday. This will be remedied by the $100M buy back authorized for ESIO, which will increase ESIO’s per share liquidating value to $9.74, which is nearly 50% higher than yesterday’s close. There is a risk that the merger will go through but the buy back will not be completed but we think this risk is relatively low.

There are two ways to play this:

1. If you are confidant that the merger will go through, buying ZIGO at $6.54 is buying ESIO for $6.41 (a 2.3% discount). This is because in the merger each share of ZIGO equates to 1.0233 shares of ESIO ($6.56 / 1.0233).

2. If you believe there is a risk that the merger will not go through, ESIO offers the better downside protection because it is at a deeper discount to its liquidating value.

ESIO closed yesterday at $6.56.

ZIGO closed yesterday at $6.54, which equates to paying $6.41 for ESIO.

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 868.57.

[Disclosure: We do not presently hold either ESIO or ZIGO.  This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only.]

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