A great piece from MebFaber on the probabilistic median real returns to different CAPE levels:
An ugly period for US equities approaches.
Read Probabilistic Investing.
November 3, 2013 by Tobias Carlisle
A great piece from MebFaber on the probabilistic median real returns to different CAPE levels:
An ugly period for US equities approaches.
Read Probabilistic Investing.
Any idea over what time period MebFarber gathered his data? It would also be nice to look at the stdev in the longer term returns to see if any time periods still ended up positive, but this is probably not available.
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what does CAPE stand for?
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Peter Lynch has a great saying for this kind of forecasting, something along the lines of “There are lots of guys who’ve called 28 out of the last three recessions.”
Lynch would also say that it’s always a market of stocks rather than a stock market, and you can have one stock and be a proxy for the market, or you can have 1,000 and not be.
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