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	<description>Deep value, contrarian, and Grahamite investment</description>
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		<item>
		<title>Tepper says stocks are cheap based on the Fed model. How predictive is the Fed model?</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/14/tepper-says-stocks-are-cheap-based-on-the-fed-model-how-predictive-is-the-fed-model/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/14/tepper-says-stocks-are-cheap-based-on-the-fed-model-how-predictive-is-the-fed-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2013 16:00:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Tepper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Hussman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8633</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David Tepper was on CNBC this morning arguing that stocks are historically cheap: [Tepper] said the post showed &#8220;when the equity risk premium is high historically, you get better returns after that.&#8221; He continued, &#8220;So we&#8217;re at one of the highest all-time risk premiums in history.&#8221; In making his argument Tepper referred to this article, Are [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8633&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/14/tepper-says-stocks-are-cheap-based-on-the-fed-model-how-predictive-is-the-fed-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>12</slash:comments>
	
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		<item>
		<title>How Earnings Grow While PE Ratios Contract in Sideways Markets: Vitaliy Katsenelson&#8217;s Presentation to the Las Vegas Value Investing Congress</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/13/how-earnings-grow-while-pe-ratios-contract-in-sideways-markets-vitaliy-katsenelsons-presentation-to-the-las-vegas-value-investing-congress/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/13/how-earnings-grow-while-pe-ratios-contract-in-sideways-markets-vitaliy-katsenelsons-presentation-to-the-las-vegas-value-investing-congress/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 16:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vitaliy Katsenelson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8584</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m back from the Value Investing Congress in Las Vegas. There were a number of outstanding presentations, but, for mine, the best was Vitaliy Katsenelson&#8217;s epic presentation based on his Little Book of Sideways Markets. 12 years into this sideways market, valuations are still 30% above the historical average, while in 1982 they were about [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8584&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/13/how-earnings-grow-while-pe-ratios-contract-in-sideways-markets-vitaliy-katsenelsons-presentation-to-the-las-vegas-value-investing-congress/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Warren Buffett Talks&#8230; Total Market Value-To-Gross National Product</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/03/warren-buffett-talks-people-listen/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/03/warren-buffett-talks-people-listen/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 May 2013 16:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8428</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Turner has a guest post at Doug Short&#8217;s Advisor Perspectives called When Warren Buffett Talks &#8230; People Listen examining Warren Buffett&#8217;s favored market valuation metric: Market Value divided by Gross National Product. (I&#8217;ve also examined market value-to-GNP several times. See Warren Buffett and John Hussman On The Stock Market, FRED on Buffett’s favored market measure: Total Market Value-to-GNP, The Physics Of Investing [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8428&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/03/warren-buffett-talks-people-listen/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>14</slash:comments>
	
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Profiting From Foreign Profits: Are Corporate Profit Margins Abnormally Elevated Or Sustainable?</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/01/profiting-from-foreign-profits-are-corporate-profit-margins-abnormally-elevated-or-sustainable/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/01/profiting-from-foreign-profits-are-corporate-profit-margins-abnormally-elevated-or-sustainable/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2013 16:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit Margins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8417</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve posted here regularly about the implications of mean reversion in elevated profit margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn’t Different, What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition). Those posts [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8417&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/05/01/profiting-from-foreign-profits-are-corporate-profit-margins-abnormally-elevated-or-sustainable/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>10</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">greenbackd</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn&#8217;t Different</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/29/the-temptation-to-abandon-proven-models-in-speculative-and-fearful-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/29/the-temptation-to-abandon-proven-models-in-speculative-and-fearful-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8257</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Source: &#8220;What Goes Up Must Come Down!&#8221; James Montier (March 2012) In his recent piece The Endgame is Forced Liquidation John Hussman eloquently describes the reason why investors need to be wary of structural arguments intended to dispose of indicators with a very reliable cyclical record: On the temptation to disregard proven indicators As a side-note, it’s important for investors [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8257&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/29/the-temptation-to-abandon-proven-models-in-speculative-and-fearful-markets/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Montier Corporate Profit Margins</media:title>
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	</item>
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		<title>What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/26/hussman-on-record-corporate-profit-margins-and-the-stock-market/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/26/hussman-on-record-corporate-profit-margins-and-the-stock-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Apr 2013 16:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Catalysts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Hussman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Corporate profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947, as I&#8217;ve discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition). John Hussman attributes it to the record negative low in combined household and government savings: The deficit of one sector must emerge as the surplus [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8172&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/26/hussman-on-record-corporate-profit-margins-and-the-stock-market/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>80</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">greenbackd</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Does Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Show Statistical Evidence Of An Economic Moat? Our Quantitative Value Model Applied</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/24/does-apple-inc-nasdaqaapl-show-evidence-of-a-statistical-economic-moat-our-quantitative-value-model-applied-in-the-value-investing-letter/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/24/does-apple-inc-nasdaqaapl-show-evidence-of-a-statistical-economic-moat-our-quantitative-value-model-applied-in-the-value-investing-letter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantitative investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantitative Value Book]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8182</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We wrote an article for the April issue of Value Investing Letter giving an overview of Quantitative Value, discussing the quantitative value model outlined in the book, and applying it to Apple Inc. (AAPL). It&#8217;s been smashed up since then, and there was also some big news yesterday &#8212; which is that AAPL is going to return $100 [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8182&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/24/does-apple-inc-nasdaqaapl-show-evidence-of-a-statistical-economic-moat-our-quantitative-value-model-applied-in-the-value-investing-letter/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">AAPL</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>What does a comprehensive analysis of 1,700 widely followed stocks tell us about the general level of the market?</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/22/what-does-a-comprehensive-valuation-of-1700-widely-followed-stocks-tell-us-about-the-markets-valuation/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/22/what-does-a-comprehensive-valuation-of-1700-widely-followed-stocks-tell-us-about-the-markets-valuation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Apr 2013 16:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Catalysts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Line]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://greenbackd.com/?p=8233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP) 2009 Marketwatch&#8217;s Mark Hulbert has a great article Finding the best four-year market forecaster examining Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential (VLMAP), which is the median three-to-five year gain that Value Line’s analysts estimate for the 1,700 stocks they cover. From Value Line October 2010 update: The estimate of the median price appreciation [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8233&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/22/what-does-a-comprehensive-valuation-of-1700-widely-followed-stocks-tell-us-about-the-markets-valuation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/19/jeremy-grantham-profit-margins-are-probably-the-most-mean-reverting-series-in-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/19/jeremy-grantham-profit-margins-are-probably-the-most-mean-reverting-series-in-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Apr 2013 16:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Grantham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Hussman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Ratio of Corporate Profits-to-GDP and Returns (1947 to Present) Source: Hussman Weekly Comment &#8220;Taking Distortion at Face Value,&#8221; (April 8, 2013) Warren Buffett, 1999 [F]rom 1951 on, the percentage settled down pretty much to a 4% to 6.5% range. &#8230; In my opinion, you have to be wildly optimistic to believe that corporate profits as [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=7940&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<title>Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude</title>
		<link>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/17/bull-markets-since-1871-duration-and-magnitude/</link>
		<comments>http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/17/bull-markets-since-1871-duration-and-magnitude/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 16:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Carlisle</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavioral economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contrarian investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bull Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Butler&#124;Philbrick&#124;Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&#38;P 500 price series from Shiller&#8217;s publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=greenbackd.com&#038;blog=5581605&#038;post=8079&#038;subd=greenbackd&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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