Forbes has a great article on Carl Icahn’s activist campaign at Oshkosh Corporation(NYSE:OSK) called Is Icahn Trying To Nickel And Dime Oshkosh? Sum Of The Parts Worth Way More, BofA Says. Icahn, who, according to the article, holds 9.5 percent of the outstanding stock, is pushing to takeover the company and possible split it up. Icahn has offered $32.50 per share for the stock he doesn’t own. Bank of America’s analysts argue that the value of OSK is between $35 and $38 per share:
Their view, they noted, is supported by the average price target analysts have on the stock, which is approximately $32. Data from Thomson One shows that out of the 14 analysts that cover Oshkosh, 8 have a “buy” or “strong buy” for the stock, with a mean price target of $32.91 and a median of $34.
That valuation excludes a change of control premium, which Bank of America estimates should be between 20% and 30% over their estimate. That would take their sum of the parts valuation to between $42 to $49 per share. “While we believe that it would be very hard to get a bidder without significant synergies at levels greater than $42/share, the current offer of $32.50 while representing a 21% premium to closing price on October 11, 2012 [sic] seems indeed too low,” they added.
Read the article.
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Embedded below is my Fall 2012 strategy paper, “Hunting Endangered Species: Investing in the Market for Corporate Control.”
From the executive summary:
The market for corporate control acts to catalyze the stock prices of underperforming and undervalued corporations. An opportunity exists to front run participants in the market for corporate control—strategic acquirers, private equity firms, and activist hedge funds—and capture the control premium paid for acquired corporations. Eyquem Fund LP systematically targets stocks at the largest discount from their full change‐of‐control value with the highest probability of undergoing a near‐term catalytic change‐of‐control event. This document analyzes in detail the factors driving returns in the market for corporate control and the immense size of the opportunity.
Hunting Endangered Species: Investing in the Market for Corporate Control Fall 2012 Strategy Paper
This is the investment strategy I apply in the Eyquem Fund. It is obviously son-of-Greenbackd (deep value, contrarian and activist follow-on) and, although it deviates in several crucial aspects, it is influenced by the 1999 Piper Jaffray research report series, Wall Street’s Endangered Species.
For more of my research, see my white paper “Simple But Not Easy: The Case For Quantitative Value” and the accompanying presentation to the UC Davis MBA value investing class.
As always, I welcome any comments, criticisms, or questions.
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