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Archive for August, 2010

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) field trip report from 1965

Posted in About, Value Investment, tagged , on August 31, 2010 | 1 Comment »

Michael Bigger’s Bigger Capital blog has a great “field trip” report on McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) from 1965. You could have picked up MCD then for a split-adjusted $0.06 per share, giving you a twelve-hundredfold return to date. Says Michael: A good friend of mine, a talented research analyst, covered McDonald’s (MCD) in the sixties. One [...]

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results? Indicators of hedge fund performance persistence

Posted in About, Stocks, tagged on August 30, 2010 | 7 Comments »

The CXO Advisory Group blog has a great post about the indicators of persistence in hedge fund performance. CXO examines a July 2010 paper, “Hedge Fund Characteristics and Performance Persistence”, by Manuel Ammann, Otto Huber and Markus Schmid, in which the authors investigate hedge fund performance persistence over periods of six to 36 months based on portfolios [...]

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Graham / Shiller PE10 calculated using Shadowstats’ CPI

Posted in About, Stocks, Value Investment, tagged , on August 27, 2010 | 13 Comments »

Saturna Capital has an interesting take on the calculation of the Graham / Shiller PE10, otherwise known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE). Saturna argues that The Market May Be Cheaper Than It Looks because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) understates the true rate of inflation, a key [...]

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Vitaliy Katsenelson on Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT)

Posted in About, Value Investment, tagged , on August 26, 2010 | 1 Comment »

Vitaliy Katsenelson’s Contrarian Edge has a great post on Medtronic Inc. (NYSE:MDT) (Barron’s is wrong on Medtronic). Katsenelson’s post is a rebuttal to a Barron’s article, Should Medtronic Investors Lose Heart?, in which the author argues that MDT is a sick man. His post is a superb line-by-line refutation of Barron’s thesis: “The stock looks [...]

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Darwin’s darlings in practice: Accretive uses “Take Private” tactic

Posted in About, Catalysts, Stocks, Value Investment, tagged , on August 25, 2010 | 3 Comments »

One of my favorite strategies is the Endangered Species / Darwin’s Darlings strategy I discussed in some detail earlier this year (see Hunting endangered species and Endangered Species 2001). The strategy is based on a Spring 1999 Piper Jaffray research report called Wall Street’s Endangered Species by Daniel J. Donoghue, Michael R. Murphy and Mark Buckley, then at Piper Jaffray and [...]

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Last chance for $1,700 discount to 6th Annual Value Investing Congress New York October 12 and 13

Posted in Stocks on August 24, 2010 | Leave a Comment »

This is your last chance to grab substantial savings for the Value Investing Congress. The event takes place on October 12th & 13th in New York City. Greenbackd readers can save $1,700 with discount code N10GB6. Register in the next six days before the price increases by $400. Get your ticket now. The Value Investing [...]

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Counterintuitive strategies for hedge fund holdings

Posted in Behavioral economics, Stocks, tagged on August 24, 2010 | Leave a Comment »

Zero Hedge has a great post on the quarterly Goldman Hedge Fund Trend Monitor. The most interesting aspect of the piece is the relative performance of stocks with the highest concentration of hedge fund holders against the performance of stocks with the lowest concentration of hedge fund holders: We define “concentration” as the share of [...]

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Richard H. Thaler on Overconfidence in Forecasting

Posted in About, Behavioral economics, tagged on August 23, 2010 | Leave a Comment »

Richard H. Thaler, Chicago School economist and co-author (along with Werner F.M. DeBondt) of Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality, and the “Thaler” in Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, has written an opinion piece for the NYTimes.com “The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting.” Thaler says: BUSINESSES in nearly every industry were caught off guard by the [...]

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Liberty Media Corp (Capital) (NASDAQ:LCAPA) undervalued on a sum-of-the-parts analysis

Posted in Liquidation Value, Stocks, tagged on August 20, 2010 | 4 Comments »

Minyanville has an article analyzing Liberty Media Corp (Capital) (NASDAQ:LCAPA) on a sum-of-the-parts basis: The key for investors: Liberty Capital stock trades at a 58% discount to the value of all the assets that back it. The stock recently sold for $48 [now $45], but the collection of assets it represents add up to $82 [...]

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Former Icahn lieutenant Rachesky takes position in HAWK

Posted in Activist Investors, Liquidation Value, Seahawk Drilling (NASDAQ: HAWK), Stocks, tagged , , on August 19, 2010 | 7 Comments »

Carl Icahn’s former lieutenant Mark Rachesky has opened a position in Seahawk Drilling Inc (NASDAQ:HAWK), a stock I’ve covered in some detail (see the post archive here). Rachesky holds the position in his investment vehicle, MHR Fund Management LLC. Rachesky’s most recent 13F filing indicates he picked up around 1.2M shares for around $11.4M, which implies an average [...]

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