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Archive for June, 2010

US CAPE and Tobin’s q chart to 31 March

Posted in About, Value Investment, tagged , on June 17, 2010 | 1 Comment »

Smithers & Co. has updated its calculations for US market valuations according to cyclically-adjusted price earnings (CAPE) and Tobin’s q. CAPE is the Graham PE10, of which I am so fond. Tobin’s q compares the market value and replacement value of the same physical assets. Here’s Smithers & Co.’s chart: Says Smithers & Co. of the [...]

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Graham Shiller P/E10 vs forward P/E ratios

Posted in About, Stocks, Value Investment, tagged on June 16, 2010 | 2 Comments »

In MarketBeat’s Stocks Too Cheap? Or Earnings Estimates Too Rosy? (subscription required), Matt Phillips has an interesting article on forward price-to-earnings ratios: The forward-earnings in question are really consensus forward-earnings estimates, churned out by Wall Street’s broker dealers,  the so-called “sell side.” And the “sell-side” as a whole tend to be a bullish bunch. Phillips takes Oppenheimer [...]

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Mebane Faber on Shiller PE10 ratio

Posted in About, Stocks, tagged on June 15, 2010 | Leave a Comment »

Mebane Faber has an interesting analysis of the expected ten-year annualized real returns to investors in the various Shiller / Graham P/E10 deciles: I’ve discussed the Graham / Shiller PE10 metric before (see my April 9 post Graham’s PE10 ratio). In that article, Doug Short described the PE10 ratio thus: Legendary economist and value investor Benjamin [...]

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If Icahn buys BP…

Posted in Activist Investors, Carl Icahn, tagged on June 14, 2010 | 4 Comments »

Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners has been making the rounds in the media talking up his position in BP Plc (LSE:BP). Here’s Tilson on Fast Money late last week: Market Folly has a great summary of Tilson’s rationale here. In short, it’s a case of being greedy while others are fearful. Tilson compares BP to the [...]

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Fear and loathing in Lazare Kaplan International (AMEX:LKI)

Posted in About, Net Quick Stocks, Stocks, tagged , on June 11, 2010 | 2 Comments »

Jon Heller at Cheap Stocks has a great post on The Downside of Net/Net Investing- Lazare Kaplan (LKI). Says Jon: In July of 2009,we initiated a new position in the $1.15 range. The shares subsequently ran up to $2.50, but in September, trading was halted,and not a share has traded since. The company has repeatedly delayed filing [...]

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Results of the PFIN annual meeting

Posted in Activist Investors, Stocks, tagged , on June 10, 2010 | 1 Comment »

On Tuesday last week I ran a post on Lawndale Capital Management’s campaign to have P & F Industries Inc (NASDAQ:PFIN), among other corporate governance initiatives, rein in the compensation paid to PFIN’s Chairman and CEO, Richard Horowitz for poor performance. Lawndale’s May 26 amended 13D exhibited its May 25 letter to PFIN board, which also [...]

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Lost Graham speech rediscovered

Posted in About, Stocks, Value Investment, tagged on June 9, 2010 | 1 Comment »

Jason Zweig has unearthed an original typewritten text of a speech Benjamin Graham gave in San Francisco one week before John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Says Zweig: In this brilliant presentation, Graham explores how an investor should go about determining whether the market is overvalued, how to tell what asset allocation is right for you, [...]

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Irony

Posted in About, Activist Investors, GAMCO, tagged , on June 8, 2010 | 3 Comments »

Mario Gabelli has long been criticized for his outsized remuneration at Gamco Investors Inc (NYSE:GBL). In 2005, a large investor in Gabelli Group Capital Partners, or G.G.C.P., Gabelli’s private company, sued him for, among other things, “looting the assets of the company.” According to this New York Times article, document disclosure in the case revealed that Gabelli [...]

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Absolute Return interviews Seth Klarman

Posted in Facet Biotech Corporation (NASDAQ:FACT), Seth Klarman, tagged , , , on June 7, 2010 | 8 Comments »

In The value of Seth Klarman (free registration required), Absolute Return has a rare interview with the president and portfolio manager of the 28-year-old Baupost Group. In the interview, Klarman discusses several of Baupost’s positions over the last twelve months, including the fund’s stake in Facet Biotech, which I fumbled last year: Around the same [...]

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Pabrai on Frontline Ltd (USA) (NYSE:FRO); HAWK template

Posted in Stocks, tagged , on June 4, 2010 | Leave a Comment »

In his 2003 Annual Meeting, Mohnish Pabrai discussed his thesis for his investment in Frontline Ltd (USA) (NYSE:FRO). I see a number of parallels between HAWK now and FRO then. Here is an extract from the transcript: Frontline (FRO) is company I’d like to talk about because it is an interesting datapoint on how I [...]

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