Comments on: Quantifying qualitative factors

By: Quant funds don’t perform like a good quant fund should « Greenbackd

Quant funds don’t perform like a good quant fund should « Greenbackd — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 04:02:57 +0000

[...] to all sorts of biases. They perform better when they are locked into some process (see here, here, here and here for the wordier [...]

By: vasra

vasra — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:08:09 +0000

This just reiterates what Philip Tetlock found in his studies on political science experts:

http://www.amazon.com/Philip-Tetlock-Better-Forecasters-Hedgehogs/dp/B000V76TYS/

Experts lose to simple statistical algorithms in most of the cases.

By: Experts vs. Models: Who Wins? « The Guru Investor

Experts vs. Models: Who Wins? « The Guru Investor — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:33:43 +0000

[...] is a Greenbackd.com review of Ian Ayres’ book Super Crunchers (thanks to The Stingy Investor blog for highlighting this). According to Greenbackd, Ayres’ [...]

By: greenbackd

greenbackd — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 01:17:44 +0000

That’s a great article. Thank you. Mauboussin is fantastic.

By: zembla

zembla — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:15:59 +0000

Caution is warranted in taking Ayres’s conclusions at face value because his primary research seems to have been performed sloppily. At least one of his examples (the Ashenfelter model) is quoted incorrectly. Michael Mauboussin points this out in an interesting article about the importance of checking claims. While this may not necessarily invalidate the conclusions, I feel some skepticism is appropriate.

http://www.leggmason.com/individualinvestors/documents/insights/D8618-Mauboussin_SeeForYourself.pdf

By: greenbackd

greenbackd — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 01:13:50 +0000

Superb. Thank you. I’ll take a look.

By: Elias Holm

Elias Holm — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 21:05:14 +0000

This is an interesting theme – a related review which gives examples of how statistical modeling of experts’ decisions can be helpful in decision making is Swets, Dawes, and Monahan (2000): “Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions”. (Psychological Science in the Public Interest 1(1): 1-26), freely available for download.