Comments on: Counterintuition

By: Admiration a contrarian indicator « Greenbackd

Admiration a contrarian indicator « Greenbackd — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 05:00:25 +0000

[...] scorned companies are ignored like value stocks, which creates the opportunity for contrarian bet. I love a counter-intuitive strategy. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Blogging Community still very bullish – [...]

By: Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk: LSV’s Two-Dimensional Classifications « Greenbackd

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:02:06 +0000

[...] too far into the future. To exploit the flaw in intuitive forecasts – you know how I love a counter-intuitive strategy – they argue that contrarian investors should sell stocks with high past growth as well as [...]

By: M. Anand

M. Anand — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:37:59 +0000

When Bernstein mentions that you need an understanding of mathematics, I think he means that you need a conceptual clarity of the laws of probability and a grip on the basic concepts of statistics.

One does not need an advanced degree, as he does not means that. If you do not have an idea of where you stand vis a vis the odds of the event occurring or not, over a period of time, you will lose your capital.

Graham and Buffett are very superior intellects. Let us admit to that. They will for sure be in the 1/10000 which Bernstein has mentioned. I can tell you with my experience with brainy guys and girls, what they can see through with amazing clarity at first sight, will take a lot of explanation for guys on the average side of the normal curve, to get an understanding.

This is applicable even for any other art / skill like Music, Sports, Acting / Surgery etc. Some set of people ( may be in the same fraction as mentioned for finance ) only are superb intellects in that field.

I dont think anyone will say that Music or Surgery is the domain for everyone without basic knowledge of the field.

I am surprised ( actually I should not be) how that is assumed for investing.

By: shaun noll

shaun noll — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:47:28 +0000

that reader makes an interesting point, there are certainly many many many successful investors that base their investments solely on math though (ie: nearly every technical trader).

So I pose the question:

what if value investing is NOT what suits your personality type very well (this IS possible, just look at Renaissance fund or any successful non-value investors of which there are countless). Then if you don’t have some math horsepower in your head to be able to understand alternative investment philosophies you will be limiting yourself. Potentially limiting yourself from an investment style that would be ideal for you.

By: Counterintuition - Viewsflow

Counterintuition - Viewsflow — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:40:02 +0000

[...] one important aspect is the ability to "stay the course," even though it may be counter-intuitive.Close Forward this [...]

By: Emiliano

Emiliano — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:55:29 +0000

Excelente post.

By: mark feldman

mark feldman — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:18:06 +0000

You could write this article about any profession: doctors, lawyers, carpenters even.

So many experts in the field seem to love writing articles about how nobody else can possibly succeed. Sure, it takes a few years of study and dedication… but doesn’t it take 4 to 8 years to become a lawyer/doctor. And even after 8 years of education — I still wouldn’t want a young doctor operating on me. So should he just give up?

There are many ways to make a living trading. The key is to figure out which way best suits your personality. Then stick to it no matter what. And most importantly don’t give up.